COVID-19 and the Least Developed Countries
Covid-19 (coronavirus) threatens to have devastating consequences in least developed countries (LDCs). Health systems may be unable to cope with a precipitous increase in infections and these countries lack the resources to cope with the socioeconomic consequences of lockdowns around the world. Unless bold policy actions are taken by the international community achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the 2030 deadline will likely slip out of reach.
Income Support Programs and COVID-19 in Developing Countries
COVID-19 in Africa
Protecting Lives and Economies
Anywhere between 300000 and 3.3 million African people could lose their lives as a direct result of COVID-19 depending on the intervention measures taken to stop the spread. Africa is particularly susceptible because 56 percent of the urban population is concentrated in overcrowded and poorly serviced slum dwellings (excluding North Africa) and only 34 percent of the households have access to basic hand washing facilities. Even if the spread of COVID-19 is suppressed in Africa its economic damage will be unavoidable. The impact on African economies could be the slowing of growth to 1.8 percent in the best case scenario or a contraction of 2.6 per cent in the worst case. This has the potential to push 29 million people into extreme poverty. To protect and build towards our shared prosperity at least a $100 billion fiscal stimulus is needed to immediately address the urgent healthcare needs provide safety net for the most vulnerable protect jobs and support economic activity where possible.
Recovering from COVID-19
The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has exposed inadequacies in health systems worldwide. As countries plan for recovery attention should be paid not only to the strengthening of health systems at the national level but also at the global level through investing in global public goods for health. International solidarity and multilateral support are needed to forge a stronger global health system. They are a vital part of the crisis recovery process to build a future resilient against epidemics pandemics and other health challenges in a globalized world.
COVID-19 and Conflict
This brief addresses the importance of women’s full equal and meaningful participation to an effective pandemic response and to peacemaking efforts and how the women peace and security (WPS) agenda can provide a critical framework for inclusive decision-making and sustainable solutions. While efforts to flatten the pandemic’s curve unfold around the globe violent conflict remains a deadly reality for far too many people. In March 2020 the UN Secretary-General called for a global ceasefire to allow the world to address COVID-19 (coronavirus). Since the outbreak of the pandemic women have been at the forefront of effective COVID-19 prevention and response efforts—from frontline service delivery to the highest levels of decision-making. With women’s participation central to achieving sustainable solutions the pandemic has brought into sharp relief how critical the WPS agenda is to inclusive and effective decision-making. This brief recognizes the vital role of women’s civil society organizations in mobilizing support for an urgent cessation of hostilities inclusive ceasefire processes and comprehensive peace talks. It also provides a preliminary analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on women’s participation in ceasefires and peace processes and offers a series of recommendations including on “building back better”.
COVID-19 Poses Grievous Economic Challenge to Landlocked Developing Countries
The Covid-19 (coronavirus) pandemic is increasing the risks of a balance of payments crisis a food crisis and a debt crisis in landlocked developing countries (LLDC). A few LLDCs—with extremely high levels of external debt owed to private creditors—are particularly vulnerable. The unfolding multiple crisis may trigger instability violence and conflict in many LLDCs particularly in countries that have been mired in conflicts and civil wars in recent years. » High levels of income inequality in LLDCs may undermine their ability to implement effective stimulus measures to support the most vulnerable segments of their population. Timely international support is helping LLDCs avoid an immediate crisis but a long-term rescue and recovery plan is needed to steer their economies towards meaningful structural changes.
COVID-19 Impact on e-commerce: Post-pandemic COVID-19 Economic Recovery
Harnessing E-commerce for the UNECE Transition Economies
This publication highlights key policy areas that need attention if e-commerce is to sustainably recover from the impact of the pandemic. Among many policy areas trade facilitation and logistics are major facilitators of e-commerce. In the context of Covid-19 the need for greater trade facilitation for faster movement of goods across borders including essential goods such as medicine and food has become apparent. This report contributes to greater understanding of the policy options for advancing e-commerce and therefore to greater digitalization of the member States.
COVID-19 and E-commerce
Impact on Businesses and Policy Responses
Since the outbreak of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic UNCTAD has played a critical role in raising awareness on the opportunities emerging from the crisis through increasing the uptake of e-commerce and digital solutions. At the same time UNCTAD has voiced concerns about the risk of rising digital inequalities particularly in least developed countries (LDCs). The 2020 eCommerce Week organised virtually by UNCTAD and partners of the eTrade for all initiative provided a unique platform convening a wide range of stakeholders to assess implications of the crisis and explore in-depth key digital issues in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a follow-up UNCTAD assessed the impact on e-commerce businesses across developing countries and LDCs to understand the magnitude of the impact identify key trends and challenges faced by e-commerce businesses as well public and private policy responses to cope with the crisis. This paper is based on the results of a survey that investigates the impact of COVID-19 on e-commerce businesses from early March to the end of July 2020. It focuses on 23 countries mainly LDCs in Africa and Asia-Pacific. The countries have all benefitted from UNCTAD’s e-commerce capacity building programmes either through an eTrade Readiness Assessment (eT Ready) or a national e-commerce strategy. 257 representatives of e-commerce businesses out of 699 invited responded to the survey and shared their experience following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Businesses have been divided into two groups: companies selling at least parts of their goods or services online and third-party online marketplaces. The responses from the private sector were complemented by public sector responses from 12 countries elaborating on measures taken during the COVID-19 crisis to support e-commerce as well as to use e-commerce for economic recovery efforts. The key findings of this paper are presented below.
COVID-19 and E-commerce
A Global Review
This publication assesses the impact of COVID-19 on e-commerce and digital trade. While the pandemic caused a sharp deceleration in economic activity it also led to a rapid acceleration of e-commerce. With restrictions on movement and other public health interventions in place digital solutions have become essential to continued delivery of economic and social activities. And as the digital economy and e-commerce play an increased role in Sustainable Development stakeholders at all levels have a responsibility to ensure that these technologies play a positive and powerful role in national and international recovery efforts. Indeed those that can harness the potential of e-commerce will be better placed to benefit from global markets for their goods and services while those that fail to do so risk falling behind. Thus the critical global policy challenge that emerges from this study is that greater efforts are needed to help reduce inequalities in e-trade readiness that currently prevail amongst countries.
COVID-19 and Fiscal Policy
Digital Connectivity during COVID-19
Children’s digital access – or lack thereof – during the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has significantly determined whether children can continue their education seek information stay in touch with friends and family and enjoy digital entertainment. With over 1.5 billion children across 190 countries confined to their homes active video games or dance videos may also be their best chance to exercise. The rationale for closing digital divides has never been starker or more urgent. During the COVID-19 pandemic access to accurate health information is particularly important especially for children living in resource-poor communities where access to health care and services may be limited. For these and other reasons global efforts are under way to expand and support children’s digital access and engagement both during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
COVID-19 and Human Development
Assessing the Crisis, Envisioning the Recovery
The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic is unleashing a human development crisis. On some dimensions of human development conditions today are equivalent to levels of deprivation last seen in the mid-1980s. But the crisis is hitting hard on all of human development’s constitutive elements: income (with the largest contraction in economic activity since the Great Depression) health (directly causing a death toll over 300000 and indirectly leading potentially to an additional 6000 child deaths every day from preventable causes over the next 6 months) and education (with effective out-of-school rates – meaning accounting for the inability to access the internet – in primary education expected to drop to the levels of actual rates of the mid-1980s levels). This not counting less visible indirect effects including increased domestic violence yet to be fully documented. The pandemic was superimposed on unresolved tensions between people and technology between people and the planet between the haves and the have-nots. These tensions were already shaping a new generation of inequalities— pertaining to enhanced capabilities the new necessities of the 21st century as defined in the 2019 Human Development Report. But the response to the crisis can shape how those tensions are addressed and whether inequalities in human development are reduced. This note takes a capabilities approach to document the severity of the unfolding human development crisis. Such an approach implies an evaluative framework to assess the crisis and shape the policy response that emphasizes the potential for people to be and do what they aspire in life as opposed to material resources or economic activity. To assess the crisis the note draws from original simulations that are based on an adjusted Human Development Index— with the education dimension modified to reflect the effects of school closures and mitigation measures—and that incorporate current projections of gross national income (GNI) per capita for 2020.
COVID-19 and Sovereign Debt
Without aggressive policy action the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic could turn into a protracted debt crisis for many developing countries. The note puts forward concrete proposals to expand on the G20 bilateral debt moratorium and to facilitate investments in recovery and the SDGs including for highly-indebted middle-income countries that request a standstill and by bringing in other creditors. Time gained by the standstill must be used to develop sustainable solutions to the debt challenges of developing countries—to ‘build back better’. Such debt relief should be part of broader financing and recovery strategies that take SDG investment needs into consideration for example through country-led Integrated national financing frameworks. This is also the the time to also address long-standing gaps in the international financial architecture for sovereign debt.
COVID-19 and Transforming Tourism
COVID-19: The Norwegian model
From March 2020 to June 2022 Arnoldo Frigessi had a full agenda every day. The professor in statistics at the University of Oslo (UiO) and Oslo University Hospital was one of the scientists who worked for the Norwegian Institute of Public Health’s (NIPH) modelling team for COVID-19. Day and night.
COVID-19 impact on business
COVID-19: el modelo noruego
Entre marzo de 2020 y junio de 2022 Arnoldo Frigessi no tuvo ni un minuto libre. Profesor de Estadística de la Universidad de Oslo (UiO) y del Hospital Universitario de la misma ciudad este científico fue contratado por el Instituto Noruego de Salud Pública (NIPH) para colaborar con el equipo de modelización de la pandemia. Día y noche.
COVID-19 Crisis in North Africa
The Impact and Mitigation Responses
North African economies are hardly hit by COVID-19 (coronavirus) induced by the lockdown measures which had negative impact on the supply and demand sides and the drastic reduction of world demand fueling a drop in North Africa exports. Spurred by the 50% drop in oil prices and the lockdown Algeria’s GDP could fall between -4.5% to -5.8% in 2020. Morocco and Tunisia whose economies have been severely hit by the drop in tourism and demand from the EU may experience a GDP growth respectively of -3.7% and -5%. Overall North Africa will see its growth decline to -1.8% for 2020 while its full-time equivalent employment loss may reach 5 million in 2020. Economic recovery of the sub region is expected to start in 2021 assuming there is no relapse of the pandemic. The recovery expected for 2021 is conditioned on the success mitigation measures currently being implemented by governments. Some countries of the sub region with marked dependency on tourism-related activities (transports catering hotels etc.) will see their recovery path delayed as the containment measures will last for longer periods. With strong and probably long-lasting impact on employment and health the pandemic could compromise the results achieved by the sub-region in the recent years in the area of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) leading to higher levels of poverty and inequality.
COVID-19 pandemic and illicit drugs
Since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic no clear evidence has emerged of a significant decrease in the supply of drugs at the global level including in Italy even after the quarantine was extended to the entire country.
COVID-19 in an Urban World
The remarkable growth of cities in recent decades has intensified a number of humanity’s most pressing challenges. It has also presented many of our greatest opportunities to protect people prosperity and planet. COVID-19 (coronavirus) has laid bare – and indeed heightened – both these challenges and these opportunities. With an estimated 90 percent of all reported COVID-19 cases urban areas have become the epicentre of the pandemic. In the near term for many cities the COVID-19 health crisis has expanded to a crisis of urban access urban equity urban finance safety joblessness public services infrastructure and transport all of which are dis-proportionally affecting the most vulnerable in society.