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- Volume 2012, Issue 106, 2012
CEPAL Review - Volume 2012, Issue 106, 2012
Volume 2012, Issue 106, 2012
Cepal Review is the leading journal for the study of economic and social development issues in Latin America and the Caribbean. Edited by the Economic Commission for Latin America, each issue focuses on economic trends, industrialization, income distribution, technological development and monetary systems, as well as the implementation of reforms and transfer of technology. Written in English and Spanish (Revista De La Cepal), each tri-annual issue brings you approximately 12 studies and essays undertaken by authoritative experts or gathered from conference proceedings.
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Portrait of the economist as a young man: Raúl Prebisch’s evolving views on the business cycle and money, 1919-1949
Authors: Esteban Pérez Caldentey and Matías VernengoThis paper analyses Raúl Prebisch’s lesser-known contributions to economic theory, related to the business cycle and heavily informed by the Argentine experience. His views of the cycle emphasize the common nature of the cycle in the centre and the periphery as one unified phenomenon. While his rejection of orthodoxy is less than complete, some elements of what would become a more Keynesian position are developed. In particular, there is a preoccupation with the management of the balance of payments and the need for capital controls as a macroeconomic management tool, well before Keynes and White’s plans led to the Bretton Woods agreement. In the process it is clear that Prebisch developed several ideas that are still relevant for understanding cyclical fluctuations in the periphery and that he became more concerned with the ability to take advantage of cyclical booms to maintain sustained economic growth.
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Care: The missing link in economic analysis?
Author: Corina Rodríguez EnríquezThis article sets out to synthesize the contribution of feminist economics to economic analysis by expounding, explaining and highlighting the functional role of domestic and care work. It notes the inadequacy of the treatment given to this subject over the years by the different schools of economics, before going on to set out just why this dimension is essential to an understanding of system functioning. It also deals with the conceptual, methodological and economic policy implications of incorporating this dimension of analysis, and with its relevance to the effort to carry forward an agenda that addresses the economic dimensions of gender inequity.
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Inflation targeting works well in Latin America
Authors: José García-Solanes and Fernando Torrejón-FloresThis paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting (it) in five Latin American countries during the period 2000-2007. We perform three types of econometric tests, which coincide in showing that it regimes have contributed to decreasing the level and variability of both the rate of inflation and the short-term interest rate, compared with a group of non-it Latin American countries. Moreover, our empirical analysis clearly reveals that it has led to lower variability in gdp growth, but the net effects on the level of economic growth remain unclear. The main technical innovation of this paper is the estimation of a treatment effects model to solve the endogeneity problem of adopting it, which is inherently present in most of the econometric tests applied so far in this field.
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The performance of Chinese and Brazilian exports to Latin America, 1994-2009
This article analyses the structure of Brazilian and Chinese exports to Latin American markets, for the purpose of evaluating the repercussions of China’s emergence as a global power and major trading partner of the countries of the region. An estimation of several international trade and competitiveness indicators shows that Chinese exports, particularly manufactured goods, are displacing Brazilian products on the regional market; and this poses a potential threat to Brazil.
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The country brand trap
Authors: Rodrigo Berríos and Rodrigo SaensData on 14,284 bottles of wine from six regions or countries, namely Argentina, Australia, Chile, California (United States), Burgundy (France) and South Africa, and from five vintages (1997, 1999, 2001, 2004 and 2005), are used to estimate a hedonic price model that causally relates wine prices to individual quality and country brands. A positive and statistically significant relationship between price and individual quality is confirmed, and it is found that the premium or penalty attaching to wines because of their associated country brand has held steady over time, as has price-quality elasticity. Individual quality being equal, Chilean and Argentine wines continue to suffer a penalty of over 50% relative to Californian wines. Another finding is that the country brand problem will not be solved until countries that are newcomers to the industry, such as Chile and Argentina, succeed in producing a critical mass of wines of outstanding quality, for this is the factor that will ultimately determine whether their producers benefit from a good collective image or reputation.
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Peru: Integration, sectoral specialization and synchronization with international gross domestic product cycles
Author: Mario D. TelloThis paper analyses the way the integration of trade, finance and sectoral specialization relates to the degree of synchronization between the gross domestic product (gdp) cycles of Peru and those of the 31 countries with which it trades most. The analysis is based on estimation of a system of simultaneous equations with panel data in which account is also taken of the repercussions of preferential trade agreements (ptas). The findings reveal robust two-way relationships between synchronization and financial integration, between the latter and trade integration, and between trade integration and sectoral specialization. ptas did not influence the different variables considered. This evidence suggests that greater trade integration in Peru would intensify the effects of partner countries’ gdp cycles on Peruvian output in contexts like the 2008 and 2010 crises.
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The evolution of opportunities for children in Chile, 1990–2006
Authors: Dante Contreras, Osvaldo Larrañaga, Esteban Puentes and Tomás RauIn this paper we measure the evolution of inequality of opportunity in Chile. These measures assess how unequal the distribution of socioeconomic outcomes is, based on exogenous circumstances. The results show a reduction in inequality of opportunity from 1990 to 2006. The gains are of two classes. First, social service coverage has increased substantially, leading to a general improvement in opportunities. Second, the gaps in access probabilities among population subgroups have been reduced, making the playing field more balanced. These results should be interpreted as partial evidence for the evolution of opportunities in Chile. We also found a significant gap in the opportunity index across Chile, which reflects differences in both coverage rates and the distribution of opportunities within regions. The reduction in inequality is good news, but Chile still has a long way to go to achieve an equitable distribution of welfare.
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Chile: Building a computable general equilibrium model with an application to the Bío Bío region
Author: Cristián Mardones P.This paper describes the building of a regional computable general equilibrium model applicable to the analysis of development policies and major economic shocks for specific regions of Chile. Then is generated an application for the Bío Bío region which reveals that the effects of the current fisheries crisis (caused by the scarcity of jack mackerel) can be expected to result in the production structure becoming further specialized in the wood and cellulose industries. It also finds that sectors with few production linkages to the fisheries sector are strongly affected through indirect channels that would be hard to identify without a general equilibrium approach.
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The economics of demand-led growth. Theory and evidence for Brazil
Authors: José Luís Oreiro, Luciano Nakabashi and Guilherme Jonas Costa da SilvaThis article describes the theory of demand-led growth and provides evidence that a demand-led growth regime exists in the Brazilian economy. Based on the methodology developed by Atesoglu (2002), econometric tests of this hypothesis show that almost 85% of the growth rate of real gdp in the period 1990-2005 is explained by demand-side variables, mainly exports and government consumption. As the current fiscal crisis rules out fiscal expansion, Brazil’s only option is to adopt an export-led growth model. The article also shows that the maintenance of undervalued real exchange rate is a major determinant of export growth in developing countries such as Brazil.
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Brazil: The international financial crisis and counter-cyclical policies
This article evaluates the effectiveness of the counter-cyclical measures adopted by the Brazilian government to mitigate the effects of the subprime mortgage crisis, by analysing the repercussions of monetary, fiscal and credit policies on several of the main macroeconomic aggregates. The empirical analysis showed that expansionary credit policy was decisive for increasing family consumption and aggregate output during the crisis. While expansionary monetary policy also helped increase aggregate production during that period, investment expenditure did not respond to counter-cyclical policies.
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