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CEPAL Review - Volume 2016, Issue 118, 2016
Volume 2016, Issue 118, 2016
Cepal Review is the leading journal for the study of economic and social development issues in Latin America and the Caribbean. Edited by the Economic Commission for Latin America, each issue focuses on economic trends, industrialization, income distribution, technological development and monetary systems, as well as the implementation of reforms and transfer of technology. Written in English and Spanish (Revista De La Cepal), each tri-annual issue brings you approximately 12 studies and essays undertaken by authoritative experts or gathered from conference proceedings.
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CEPAL Review marks its fortieth anniversary
The first issue of CEPAL Review was published in the first half of 1976. Forty years have now passed since that inaugural edition, under Raúl Prebisch’s direction, burst onto the academic debate on the development of Latin America and the Caribbean, with novel and heterodox approaches to different facets of, and policies for addressing the region’s problems. These have been four decades of fruitful work which aimed to portray, as accurately as possible, the historical reality of each stage in the development process, together with the structural complexities, the specific conjunctures, and the emergence of new national, regional and global phenomena involved in this process.
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Raúl Prebisch and economic dynamics: Cyclical growth and centre-periphery interaction
Authors: Esteban Pérez Caldentey and Matías VernengoPrebisch believed that understanding the evolution of capitalist economies over time and in different contexts required a general cycle approach, encompassing all the different areas of economic activity, which he labelled “economic dynamics.” This theory, developed between 1945 and 1949, stemmed from a critique of both neoclassical and Keynesian theories, which Prebisch viewed as static representations of capitalism. It was applied first to a closed economy and then to a centre-periphery context. The theory combined the notion that profit is the driving force of economic activity, with a process of forced savings and the idea that the time lag between income circulation (and the resulting demand) and the completion of the production process are the main source of cyclical fluctuations. Prebisch’s dynamics theory, which he never completed, influenced his “development manifesto” (Prebisch, 1950).
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Inequality in Latin America: A global measurement
Authors: Verónica Amarante, Marco Galván and Xavier ManceroThis article combines individual data from household surveys in the Latin American countries to obtain a regional income vector and analyse its distribution and recent changes. It investigates whether distributive changes in the countries over the past decade have improved income distribution between individuals or widened gaps. The region’s indicators of global inequality declined significantly during 2003-2012. This drop in global inequality is explained essentially by the reduction of inequality within Latin American countries. The incomes of the inhabitants of Latin America are now more equal in relative terms than a decade ago, although differences in the countries’ average incomes have increased.
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Foreign direct investment and income inequality in Latin America: A sectoral analysis
Author: Macarena SuanesThis paper analyses the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and income inequality in Latin America. In particular, it estimates the effect of FDI from a sectoral perspective, identifying three major sectors: the primary sector, manufacturing industry and services. Using a data panel for 13 economies in the 1980-2009 period, empirical evidence was found for a positive effect of FDI on income inequality in the service and manufacturing sectors.
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The use of key indicators to assess Latin America's long-term economic performance
Authors: Stefanie Garry and Francisco G. VillarrealOfficial statistics and key indicators are essential for observing countries’ economic and social progress, determining the structural drivers of their growth and shaping priorities. Using the methodology of Khramov and Lee (2013), key indicators from the System of National Accounts (SNA), as well as balance of payments, monetary and financial, and public finance statistics, it is proposed to use a composite indicator to assess Latin America’s economic performance. An examination of long-term trends finds that this index generally captures the major economic shocks and periods of robust performance during the period 1990-2013. It construction enables the measurement of specific indicators that determine overall economic behaviour. While the usefulness of the index for analysing macroeconomic dynamics is high in comparison with alternative benchmark values, caution should be exercised when selecting a time frame for estimating the relative weights of each component.
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Does the contribution made by early eduction to later academic achievement differ in Latin America?: PISA 2009-2012
Authors: Luis Fernando Gamboa and Natalia KrügerThis article provides evidence regarding differences in the performance on academic tests in secondary school between students who had attended preschool and those who had not. A non-parametric method based on the generation of counterfactuals to decompose gaps between observable and unobservable factors is used to analyse data gathered by the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) between 2009 and 2012 for a number of Latin American countries. This analysis reveals the existence of socioeconomic segregation in terms of access; considerable score differentials (conditional on the controls used), which increase in line with the length of time spent in early childhood education; and significant differences across countries with regard to those differentials, which also tend to be greater in the case of reading test scores than in mathematics test scores.
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South-South trade and South-North trade: Which contributes more to development in Asia and South America? Insights from estimating income elasticities of import demand
Author: Thomas BernhardtThe experience of the global economic crisis led developing countries to intensify the diversification of sources of growth, seeking alternative models of economic development. The expansion of South-South trade assumed greater significance in the context of this search. Yet how promising a strategy is this? In attempting to answer this question, this paper documents the evolution of South-South trade and puts forward some theoretical considerations. It then undertakes an econometric analysis to estimate the income elasticities of import demand in bilateral trade relationships among developing Asian and South American countries and two key Northern markets. On applying an ARDL model, the analysis yields mixed results in terms of whether South-South trade presents higher income elasticities than South-North trade. Still, the findings show that South-South trade can be an alternative source of growth, especially if South-North income and import growth differentials persist.
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A multidimensional time use and well-being index: A proposal for Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico and Uruguay
Authors: Evelyn Benvin, Elizabeth Rivera and Varinia TrombenThis article aims to develop a multidimensional index by integrating time use and well-being dimensions and proposes a conceptual framework based on the assets and the human capabilities approaches. The components of the index identify deprivations, which are understood to be barriers to the development of human capabilities and social justice. The optimum objective is to look beyond monetary metrics when identifying indicators that can better explain how the population, rather than the economy, is progressing and being guided by the principles of distributive justice. This study implements the Alkire-Foster identification and aggregation method (2007 and 2013) and shows the results for four Latin American countries (Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico and Uruguay), using time-use surveys and distinguishing by household type.
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Intersectoral flows of technological knowledge in emerging countries: An input-output analysis
Authors: Eduardo Gonçalves and Amir Borges Ferreira NetoIn this paper, we aim to assess the production, use and diffusion of technology in the production structure in emerging countries, such as Brazil, China, the Russian Federation and South Africa, through the analysis of: (i) users and producers of technology; (ii) research and development (R&D) content in each group of sectors, and (iii) technical knowledge flows between these groups. We use input-output matrices combined with sectoral R&D statistics to achieve our objectives. Our major findings point to significant differences among the emerging countries and also between developing and developed countries, including differences in sectoral hierarchy in terms of production and use of technological knowledge, and differences in the direction of main technological flows among sectors.
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The business cycle and coper mining in Chile
Authors: Fernando Fuentes H. and Carlos J. GarcíaThis article “endogenizes” the copper supply, incorporating demand for mining-sector inputs represented by other goods in the economy (specifically, intermediate goods) and also energy into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for a sample of the 2003-2013 period. The model estimation reveals that a rise of 1% in the copper price leads to a 0.16% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) over five years. The main contribution of the study is to show that, if the mining sector is treated as integrated into the rest of the economy rather than being assumed to be an enclave, as it usually is, the effects of the copper price on the Chilean economy at least double.
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Beyond capital controls: Regulation of foreign currency derivatives markets in the Republic of Korea and Brazil after the global financial crisis
Authors: Daniela Magalhães Prates and Barbara FritzWithin the management of capital flows, some emerging economies have been facing economic policy dilemmas after the global financial crisis, related to financial instrument operations, in a context of abundant liquidity in the advanced economies. However, neither the academic literature nor the financial institutions have paid sufficient attention to foreign currency (FX) derivatives regulation in emerging economies. This paper analyses the measures adopted by Brazil and the Republic of Korea. We find, first, that the breadth of regulation concerning FX derivatives operations depends on the actors involved and the type of contract used. Second, effective domestic institutions are needed to formulate and implement regulations. Third, countries should not limit their policy space through multilateral or bilateral agreements, and leave space for domestic financial regulation.
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Agricultural productivity: Closing the gap between Brazil and the United States
Authors: José Eustáquio Ribeiro Vieira Filho and Armando FornazierSince the 1970s, Brazilian agriculture has undergone far-reaching changes and has played a major role in agricultural production worldwide. This article assesses the structural heterogeneity prevailing in Brazilian and United States agriculture by studying total factor productivity (TFP), which has increased in both economies, mainly through technologies allowing for economies in the use of land and labour. Although higher growth rates have enabled Brazil to narrow the productivity gap with the United States, this does not mean its productivity is superior. Each country’s production structure has specific features; and productivity differences can be seen not only between but also within countries, owing to a variety of factors, including climate, technology and learning in the production process. Resource use has become more efficient in both countries, enabling them to produce more with fewer inputs.
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Community, connectivity and the regional movement in Patagonia: The evolution of social capital in the Aysén Region of Chile
Authors: John W. Durston, José Manuel Gaete and Miguel PérezSmall rural communities in the Aysén Region of Chile evince a variety of forms and types of social capital. The predominant form of social capital has evolved in accordance with changes in the national context and the gradual integration through communications. Having been an example of community cooperation, rural communities were faced with the challenge of relating to more powerful social actors on the broader stage of the region’s civil society. This change often resulted in autonomy declining and community factions being caught up in chains of clientelism. In 2012, however, the “Your problem is my problem” movement emerged to address the marginalization perceived in the region’s asymmetrical relations with central government. The mass civil disobedience this involved was grounded in three types of social capital and marked the emergence of a citizenship that spanned the region, thus meeting one of the conditions for fully democratic decentralization.
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