CEPAL Review - Volume 2020, Issue 132, 2021

This article underscores the pressing need to transition to a new development model in Latin America and the Caribbean as the region strives to cope with the current health emergency. Statistics show that the Latin American and Caribbean region has been hit harder by the pandemic than any other and that it has also sustained the most damage in economic and social terms. This is attributable to long-standing structural factors that set the stage for the emergence of its present dysfunctional development pattern. The region grew by a scant 0.4% per year between 2014 and 2019 against the backdrop of a widening external productivity gap, deepening structural heterogeneity, low-productivity development paths and a declining share of wages in GDP. All this has eroded its social and economic development process. The economic reactivation effort must therefore be based on a package of coordinated, ambitious structural reforms in the areas of production, fiscal policy and institutional affairs in order to forge an inclusive and sustainable development style.

This essay compares the COVID-19 crisis in Latin America with two long-lasting crises (the Great Depression and the debt crisis) and two more recent and shorter ones (the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2008–2009 North Atlantic crisis). The analysis indicates that almost all external shocks, whether associated with external financing, the terms of trade, trade volumes or remittances, have been weaker during the current crisis. What has mainly been lacking is international financial cooperation. The severity of the crisis has therefore been due more to domestic factors: the fact that the region was the global epicentre of the pandemic for several months and that the crisis has come on top of five years of poor economic performance and three decades of slow growth. For this reason, the region needs to change its development patterns on top of implementing policies to overcome the crisis.

This paper explains how a “New” New International Economic Order (NNIEO) may be emerging from the slowly crumbling neoliberal international economic order that came into being in the 1980s and 1990s. First, it examines how the neoliberal order has been fading and is being reshaped in the wake of the decline of the multilateral international trading system (embodied by the World Trade Organization (WTO)) and the 2008 global financial crisis. It then discusses how recent changes in the world economy and in prevailing ideas, together with a number of contingent factors—such as climate change, the rise of China and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis— are making the emergence of an NNIEO more likely, while recognizing that some factors may hinder progress towards it.

The literature is divided on the impact of pandemics on income inequality. The economic literature points to an increase in inequality as a result of pandemics, whereas historical and political science literature argue that pandemics may create breakdowns of institutions, maintaining inequality due to elite shifts and pressure from below. We review current data on the impact of COVID-19 and find that there is evidence of an upward income transfer as well as some elite shifts in the region. However, elites have controlled the economic measures to alleviate and confront the crisis and there is little evidence of a resultant institutional breakdown.

This article returns to the Ricardian tradition of understanding income distribution as the outcome of an “antagonistic” conflict with a multiplicity of actors and struggles, where history, politics and institutions matter as much as economic “fundamentals”. Because this relates to the political sphere, there are no purely logical solutions to the conflict, but rather options in a scenario of multiple equilibria. In deregulated markets, this conflict favours the supremacy of unproductive rent (especially those of “inefficiency”), to the detriment of operating profits, affecting investment and productivity growth. Moreover, dysfunctional institutions have the “ability to persist”, thus transforming the domination into a “stationary process”: the unbalancing impacts of shocks have only limited lifespans. When, in democracy, the Latin American oligarchy limits change and weakens the State through Buchanian-style constitutional straitjackets, they redesign their distributional strategies and absorb elements of opposing ideologies to keep their own hegemonic.

This article analyses the effects of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on Brazil’s population and economy, including its high mortality rate per 100,000 inhabitants and its slow stabilization. A brief comparison is made with what is happening in a similar Latin American country, Argentina, where the results in terms of mortality per 100,000 inhabitants have been better, and in France, where the recovery has been more robust. The article also assesses the efficiency of expenditures and notes that the comparison is also not favourable for Brazil. Lastly, it addresses the problem of financing and argues that only Argentina resorted to treasury bond purchases by the central bank, the policy adopted in most rich countries that have their own currency and central bank (which France does not have).

The economies of Latin America and the Caribbean have been slipping behind in the global economy, weighed down by structural problems that hinder their capacity to grow and absorb technology. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has not only brought these structural problems into sharper relief, but has also exacerbated them, by reinforcing adverse trends in growth, employment and income distribution. This article analyses these trends and argues that the crisis requires a response that is both immediate but also aims to overcome long-term constraints. Very robust fiscal policies are needed to sustain aggregate demand; and such policies need a substantial investment component aimed at building technological capacities, increasing diversification and strengthening linkages in the production matrix.

This paper analyses some of the trends in global capitalism prior to the pandemic and some specificities of the latter that are likely to place the global economy at a crossroads between maintaining the prevailing trend of techno authoritarianism in the governance of countries and a change in the social order. It describes the arrival of the pandemic amid increasing technologization and a fragile socioeconomic architecture, which has been deteriorating since the emergence of neoliberalism in the 1980s and, especially, since the 2008–2009 financial crisis. The major trends analysed are: globalization and the rise of China, wage stagnation and the gap between productivity and wages, along with the explosion in the rate of profit, in addition to (financial and non-financial) corporate profits and the convergence of artificial intelligence and automation. It also outlines a number of lessons to be learned from the pandemic.

The global health crisis caused by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted the important connection between the economy and health. This relationship exists at the microeconomic, macroeconomic and institutional levels, as health markets tend to suffer from market failures; health expenditure tends to increase as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), and its financing has long-term implications for public finances. In the case of Mexico, the creation of a public health system that is segmented —as a result of the social protection scheme applied since 1943, which has been reformed several times in recent years— has contributed to making access to health a major factor in inequality, playing a part in the multidimensional poverty of a significant segment of the population.

This paper explores the new policy challenges that have emerged as a result of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The “new normal” should acknowledge the “new essential” in terms of jobs and sectors. First, the paper examines the trade-off between health policies and anti-recessionary policies. It studies the economic impact of lockdown on households and firms and, relatedly, the slowdown in global value chain-related trade. It the examines lessons that can be learned from this crisis in areas that were topical before the outbreak and are likely to be even more so after it. These include the need to steer digital transformation so as to minimize negative impacts on jobs and sectors while reflecting critically on their “essentiality” and the need for concerted policy action to ensure good governance of health data.

This article is a contribution to the debate on the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on gender inequalities in Latin America and the Caribbean, with a focus on women’s economic autonomy. Through a review of the contributions of feminist economics and an analysis of the empirical evidence, it identifies a deterioration in the indicators associated with women’s incomes and their participation in the labour market. The sexual division of labour is deepening in the region, endangering the scant progress made regarding women’s economic autonomy in the pre-crisis years. It warns about gender biases in crisis mitigation policies and reflects on the importance of redistributing time, resources and power to move towards a new style of development based on gender equality and sustainability.

This article proposes a model to estimate the wealth of the richest groups in society and to design an efficient wealth tax system. For design and implementation issues, it reviews comparative international experience and provides an analytical discussion of the effects of a wealth tax, reviewing the main criticisms that orthodox economists have levelled against it. The methodology used to calculate wealth involves first-order approximations and Pareto criteria to compensate for data shortcomings. This article also presents a tax system which corrects the problems that have arisen when implementing this type of tax in other countries. The model is applied to the reality of Chile, which, like other countries in the region, suffers from structural inequality in both income and wealth, which has been amplified by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This article has a twofold purpose: to describe the social and economic situation in the countries of the Central American subregion prior to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and to provide a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic policies introduced by the governments of these countries in response to this health crisis. As a central part of that analysis, it looks at the main structural policy challenges for the enhancement of social protection and reactivation of production activity and employment to be met by these countries during and after the pandemic. The need for a national compact around a new development agenda is explored, with special emphasis on external elements that should be coupled with national policies, such as regional coordination, international cooperation and finance, and a restructuring of financial and lending institutions.

The growing crisis caused by the coronavirus disease pandemic has dire implications for Latin American societies. As is often the case, the most vulnerable sectors of society —especially those living in extreme poverty— are being hit the hardest. This article identifies strategies and specific responses designed to achieve three goals: (i) reduce epidemiological risks to save lives; (ii) protect livelihoods; and (iii) ensure human capital accumulation. Epidemiological externalities, as well as humanitarian concerns, demand universal social inclusion. In order to protect the lives, health, livelihoods and human capital of the poor and vulnerable, it will be essential to: implement targeted and decisive interventions at the local level that go beyond transferring cash; allocate adequate resources to fund income support and other key interventions; and involve on local actors and grass-roots organizations for the interventions to be effective.