Unconditional Government Social CashTransfer in Africa Does Not Increase Fertility

Among policymakers, a common perception surrounding the effects of cash transfer programmes, particularly unconditional programmes targeted to families with children, is that they induce increased fertility. We evaluate the Zambian Child Grant Programme, a large-scale government unconditional cash transfer targeted to families with a child under the age of five and examine impacts on fertility and household composition. The evaluation was a cluster randomized control trial, with data collected over four years from 2010 to 2014. Our results indicate there are no programme impacts on overall fertility. In addition, among young women under 25 years fertility actually decreased after 36 months, but impacts disappeared after 48 months. Our results contribute to a small evidence base demonstrating that there are no unintended incentives related to fertility due to cash transfers.