Falling Behind

Early identification of students who fail to reach basic, age-appropriate literacy skills is the first step to ensure timely support of their learning. Understanding those drivers of low achievement that are beyond students’ control enables policy makers to foster equal opportunity for achievement. Drawing on the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2000 to 2012 data, this paper examines the risk factors of low achievement, defined here as scoring below the 10th percentile of the distribution, and their evolution over time, across 39 industrialized nations. These include an aggregate measure of socio-economic status (SES), immigration background, non-test language spoken at home, living in a single parent household, and gender. We find that family SES, is one of the most consistent predictors of low-achievement (across a diverse range of educational systems) and most persistent (across time) . Students' immigration background is found to be strongly interlinked with family SES, yet affects low achievement independently. Language disadvantage is one of the possible channels through which immigration can increase risks of low achievement. It has a strong and relatively consistent association with low achievement across countries. Meanwhile family structure, specifically a single-parent household, is a risk factor in only two out of 39 countries (Greece and Poland). We also find no evidence that the gender gap in reading – in favour of girls – narrowed over time, leaving boys at risk of educational disadvantage in the majority of countries.