Economic and Social Development
A World of Debt: It is Time for Reform
Jun 2025
Working Paper
Public debt can be vital for development. Governments use it to finance expenditures, protect and invest in their people and pave the way to a better future. However, when public debt grows excessively or its costs outweigh its benefits, it becomes a heavy burden. This is precisely what is happening across the developing world today.
Unlocking External Audits: How Supreme Audit Institutions Contribute to Effective, Transparent and Sustainable Fiscal Systems for the SDGs
Jun 2025
Working Paper
Effective and transparent public financial management is crucial for building trust in public institutions and mobilizing and effectively spending additional resources for sustainable development. Supreme Audit Institutions (SAIs) provide critical information and evidence to inform assessments of the performance of national fiscal systems, including in relation to SDG implementation, and to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal systems for sustainable development.
Wealth Distribution, Income Inequality and Financial Inclusion: A Panel Data Analysis
Apr 2023
Working Paper
Research and data indicate that wealth inequality is more concentrated than income inequality and that there is a high correlation between both variables. Yet, most empirical studies on the determinants of economic inequality focus on income and not wealth inequality and they rarely examine the nexus between the two variables. Against this backdrop, this paper examines the impact of income inequality on the distribution of wealth using panel data and controlling for the roles of financial inclusion and other potential drivers of wealth inequality. We find evidence that lagged wealth and savings rates increase wealth inequality globally as well as in the developed and developing countries samples. We also find that income inequality and return on deposits are dis-equalizing in developing countries while financial inclusion is equalizing in developed countries. In both the global and developing countries samples, financial inclusion has a negative relationship with wealth inequality, but the coefficients are not statistically significant. The findings of the paper have important policy implications for national efforts to address wealth inequality.
Women’s Agency Amid Shocks: A Gendered Analysis of Poverty Dynamics and the Implications for Social Protection in Bangladesh, Peru and the United Republic of Tanzania
May 2025
Working Paper
The world has experienced multiple crises in recent years: the COVID-19 pandemic; food, fuel, and financial crises; climate-related disasters; and violent conflict. The need for universal, gender-responsive social protection systems is thus increasingly urgent. This paper employs quantitative panel data and qualitative interviews to present an analysis of gender, poverty dynamics, and social protection in three countries spanning different geographies—rural Bangladesh, Peru, and the United Republic of Tanzania—amid shocks and crises. It also examines the implications of the analysis results for social protection system design and implementation. Results highlight high rates of transient poverty in all three countries, reflecting the underlying vulnerability of households and crisis-driven downward income mobility. In the face of shocks, women’s resources (for example, education levels and ownership of phones or financial accounts) and agency within and outside of the household (for example, right to sell land and comfort in speaking up on public needs) are a critical means of supporting household resilience. However, adverse financial inclusion and other barriers constrain these efforts. Moreover, low social protection coverage has limited the ability of households, and women within them, to draw on social protection entitlements to maintain resilience during shocks. Although there was a surge in social protection responses during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, results suggest that this remained largely inadequate in guarding women’s resilience. Based on the study findings, we derive implications for policymakers and practitioners regarding the gender-responsive design and implementation of social protection during shocks, stressors, and crises.
The Important Contribution of Supreme Audit Institutions to SDG Implementation, Follow Up and Review
May 2025
Working Paper
In a context marked by declining trust in public institutions and reduced fiscal space in many countries, supreme audit institutions (SAIs) play a key role in strengthening transparency and accountability in public institutions. The mandates of SAIs are generally aimed at promoting the transparency, efficiency, effectiveness and accountability of the public sector and improving the performance of government institutions. Initially focused on government compliance and financial auditing, SAIs’ mandates have been expanded to assess the economy, efficiency and effectiveness of public spending and government performance. SAIs can use their mandate to assess government efforts to implement the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), complementing other accountability institutions and actors (such as parliaments, civil society and the media) and governments’ internal monitoring and evaluation systems. Before the adoption of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the engagement of SAIs with internationally agreed development goals was limited. Since 2016, this has changed significantly. Individual SAIs at the national level and groups of SAIs working under the umbrella of the International Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions (INTOSAI) have engaged in supporting the implementation of the SDGs in various ways, including through conducting audits of progress on SDG targets or their national equivalents, as well as audits of national programmes supporting SDG implementation. This work has resulted in tangible impacts on national policies, programmes and institutional arrangements in support of the SDGs. This brief highlights how the work of SAIs is informing SDG implementation, follow up and review. It provides a brief overview of SAIs’ engagement with the SDGs. This is followed by a snapshot of the current work of SAIs on SDGs and of their impacts. Finally, it reflects on the role of SAIs in national SDG follow-up and review systems.
Leveraging Strategic Foresight to Mitigate Artificial Intelligence (AI) Risk in Public Sectors
May 2025
Working Paper
The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2024 warns that with less than one-fifth of targets on track, the world is failing to deliver on the promise of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds significant potential to accelerate the implementation of the SDGs by enhancing efficiency, fostering innovation, and improving decision-making across various sectors such as health, education, climate change, water, food, and energy. However, the unpredictable trajectory of AI development, coupled with its complex ethical, social, and political ramifications, necessitates a structured approach to anticipate and navigate its potential impacts. Strategic foresight exercises are essential in this context, enabling stakeholders to proactively identify and address emerging challenges and opportunities associated with AI. By leveraging collective intelligence and scenario planning, strategic foresight exercises can help ensure that AI technologies are developed and deployed responsibly, thereby increasing the likelihood of their positive contribution to sustainable and inclusive growth. Such forward-thinking methodologies are critical to mitigating risks and harnessing AIs transformative power in advancing the SDGs. This policy brief explains how strategic foresight can inform and guide public sectors in anticipating unexpected challenges and effectively harnessing AI technologies.
Measuring Social Norms for Gender and Development
Nov 2024
Working Paper
Beginning with the premise that measurement is not a neutral or power-free process, this discussion paper reviews seven key examples of how social norms are being measured in efforts to achieve gender equality. The examples include studies by the OECD, UNDP, World Bank, and UN Women. The aim is to take stock of these approaches, identify emerging lessons, and assess gaps and limitations in order to produce improved social norms measures. The authors identify four cross-cutting shortcomings from the examples such as: inconsistencies in definitions and measures of social norms; unclear causal pathways; poorly evidenced or conceptually under-justified recommendations, especially about legal reform and the positive role of private sector actors within interventions to shift social norms; and failure to consider collective agency and contentious politics. These all limit the effectiveness of norms-based work in improving gender equality outcomes. The paper concludes by outlining components of a future framework for measuring social norms and gender equality, suggesting what should be measured, why, how, and by whom. The authors put forward two clusters of priorities: improving the internal consistency of measures; and incorporating emerging best practices through long-term, participatory norms measures that encompass gender equality outcomes and address institutional dimensions of social norm change. A focus on these should result in a more nuanced and effective approach to measuring and addressing social norms towards the achievement of gender equality.
Recasting Social Norms to Universalize Education for Adolescent Girls
Dec 2024
Working Paper
This discussion paper offers a counterpoint to the behaviour change strategies proposed by the Social Norms Approach in the field of international development. It discusses the community-led and multi-layered approach of the Mamidipudi Venkatarangaiya Foundation (MVF) in Telangana State, India, to transforming social norms on child labour, education, and gender. The MVF’s programme on universalizing education for adolescent girls is rooted in the belief that it is possible to change the patriarchal values that rule society. It addresses a broad range of obstacles to girls’ schooling, such as: gender discrimination, child labour, early marriage, cultural barriers, lack of safety and security, inadequate facilities in schools, and restrictions to physical mobility. Credible and mounting evidence from the field shows that: adolescent girls in the programme areas are now able to exercise agency and demand their rights; parents have stopped forcing girls into early marriage and are allowing them to follow their aspiration for secondary education; public servants are defending the rights of girls; and even traditionally conservative bodies, such as caste panchayats and priests, are coming around to the idea that early marriage has negative effects and are refusing to solemnize the marriages of minors. Data from MVF field mobilizers and from an independent study of the adolescent girls’ programme are provided to confirm the success of the approach in bringing about sustainable norm change and concrete improvements in outcomes for girls. These positive results were shown to persist despite the COVID-19 lockdown.
Family-oriented Policies and Programmes in Voluntary National Reviews (2020-2024)
Jun 2025
Working Paper
Family-oriented policies and programmes involve families in their design and implementation. They promote the wellbeing of family units and their members in areas such as child education and development, intergenerational care and support, and work and family reconciliation, thus contributing to several SDGs. The upcoming Second World Summit for Social Development provides an opportunity to take stock of the importance of family-oriented policies for social development and demonstrate that further advancement of family policy in the context of the 2030 Agenda depends on how well issues of family policy are integrated into the overall development planning at national levels. This brief presents a global analysis of 171 Voluntary National Reviews (2020–2024) from 141 countries addressing core aspects of family well-being by focusing on policies related to: poverty reduction (SDG1), food security and nutrition (SDG2), health and well-being (SDG3), quality education (SDG4), and gender equality (SDG5). It also considers complementary goals that influence the well-being of families, including access to water and sanitation (SDG6), housing, transportation, and inclusive urban development (SDG11), reduced inequalities (SDG10), as well as peaceful and inclusive societies (SDG16). Notably, the period under scrutiny spans five years and is marked by the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery efforts. Moreover, the reporting countries vary in levels of development and state capacities.
From the First to the Second World Summit for Social Development: Reclaiming a Broad Vision of Social Progress
Jun 2025
Working Paper
The World Social Report 2025 warns that piecemeal approaches are no match for the scale and interconnectedness of today’s challenges. Rising economic insecurity, persistent inequality, eroding trust, and social fragmentation demand coordinated responses grounded in a shared commitment to equality, social justice, and solidarity. The 2025 World Summit for Social Development offers a chance to reaffirm the Copenhagen Declaration and reapply its principles to current realities, restoring a holistic vision of social progress as the foundation of a more inclusive, resilient, and sustainable future.
Anticipating the Extent and Pace of Population Ageing in SIDS Can Help Build a More Sustainable Future
Jul 2025
Working Paper
Over the next decades, most small island developing States (SIDS) are projected to experience a rapid increase in both the share and the number of people aged 65 years or over. In half of the SIDS, the size of the older population will double between now and 2055. All SIDS, even those with youthful populations today, should embrace forward-looking strategies to capitalize on the opportunities that population ageing will bring, while also addressing the context-specific challenges it may pose.
Preparing to Seize Artificial Intelligence Opportunities With Strategic National Policies
Aug 2025
Working Paper
Developing countries need to strengthen national readiness and design targeted policies in order to prepare for a world rapidly being reshaped by artificial intelligence and other frontier technologies. National competitiveness increasingly depends on science, technology and innovation (STI) and knowledge-intensive services. Some developing countries exhibit significant potential relative to their income levels; most need to design industrial and innovation policies that account for the role of knowledge-intensive services and the uncertainties surrounding research and development. It is also critical to consider the diffusion and direction of frontier technologies and their impact on the economy, and to adapt catch-up strategies accordingly. Developing countries need to quickly respond to the challenges posed by artificial intelligence, implementing policies that align with national development goals and agendas. It may be more feasible to immediately support the adoption of artificial intelligence for particular sectoral needs, yet developing countries should also formulate long-term strategic plans to steer national artificial intelligence development. Otherwise, as latecomers, they may be left with few options.
The Development Impact of the War in Ukraine
Mar 2022
Working Paper
The immediate humanitarian assistance to the people of Ukraine is of utmost importance and at the center of global attention. Early estimates by the Humanitarian Country Team indicate that nearly 30 percent of the population are likely to require life-saving humanitarian assistance. In its current scale and direction, 18 million people are projected to become affected and more than 7 million people internally displaced. The development impacts of the war in Ukraine remain too much below the waterline of public visibility, in Ukraine, regionally and globally. Early UNDP projections suggest that already in the short- to medium term, the development setbacks for Ukraine will be significant. Poverty and inequalities will rise; the country’s economy, its social fabric, and the environment will suffer.
Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Hurricane Dorian and the COVID-19 Pandemic on MSMEs in The Bahamas
Jan 2022
Working Paper
This report provides an assessment of the social and economic impact and efficacy of post Dorian and COVID support programmes on micro, small and mid-sized enterprises in Grand Bahama and Abaco, as well as Recommendations for policy development to improve resiliency, promote social and economic recovery and mitigate the impact of future disaster on MSMES. This report links the available institutional research on the distinct and separate impacts of Hurricane Dorian and COVID-19 with new data collected from an online survey created on the KOBO Humanitarian platform in collaboration with UNDP SURGE Data Hub, Country Support Management Team of the UNDP Crisis Bureau. The survey, launched from November 2020 to February 2021 and promoted via radio and social media, received 486 responses from affected owners of MSMEs in Grand Bahama and Abaco, some of whom had been displaced because of the storm. The respondents represent almost 14 percent of all registered MSMEs on the islands prior to Hurricane Dorian.
الآثار الاجتماعية والاقتصادية لحرب 2024 على لبنان: موجز سياسي
Jun 2025
Working Paper
ألحقت حرب 2024 على لبنان أضراراً جسيمة وخلّفت تداعيات عميقة طويلة الأمد. ويقدّم هذا التقرير تحليلاً شاملاً لهذه الآثار، بهدف رسم مسار واضح للتعافي الفوري وتوجيه جهود الإصلاح على المديين المتوسط والطويل. ويتناول التقرير الخسائر المباشرة التي ألحقتها الحرب بالبنية التحتية والنظم الاقتصادية، ويكشف عن التكاليف البشرية والاجتماعية الباهظة. كما يقيّم التداعيات على الاقتصاد الكلي، مسلطاً الضوء على تفاقم التحديات البنيوية، وما أسفر عنها من مخاطر اقتصادية واجتماعية. ويختتم التقرير بسلسلة من التوصيات على مستوى السياسة العامة، هي بمثابة أساس صلب لجهود التعافي الشامل وبناء المستقبل.
التنمية المجتمعية الدامجة للأشخاص ذوي الإعاقة: سياسة وطنية وبرامج مجتمعية
May 2025
Working Paper
يقترح موجز السياسات "التنمية المجتمعية الدامجة للأشخاص ذوي الإعاقة: من النهج الطبي إلى الدمج و المشاركة" تغييراً جذرياً في طريقة دعم الأشخاص ذوي الإعاقة في المنطقة العربية. فالخدمات المقدّمة إلى هذه الفئة المجتمعيّة لا تزال تتّخذ منحىً طبيّاً، ما يحرم الملايين من أفرادها من المشاركة الكاملة في مجتمعاتهم. كذلك يُوجَّه الجزء الأكبر من الموارد إلى المؤسسات التقليدية التي تخدم أعداداً قليلة من الأشخاص ذوي الإعاقة، ولا تُخصص سوى موارد ضئيلة جدًا لتطوير برامج دامجة ومستدامة تضمن لهم العيش المستقل والمشاركة الفعّالة. ونظراً إلى أنّ هذا الواقع يخلق فجوةً واسعة بين التشريعات الطموحة وواقع الحال، تدعو السياسة المقترحة إلى إعادة تخصيص الموارد نحو بناء بيئات شاملة للأشخاص ذوي الإعاقة، من خلال دعم سبل العيش المستقلّ، وإزالة الحواجز المؤسسية والسلوكية، وتعزيز فرص التعليم والعمل المستدام.
Gender Statistics in the Arab Region: Seeking a Long-awaited Balance
Jun 2025
Working Paper
The Arab region is facing significant challenges in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, with progress towards gender equality being particularly slow and uneven. Despite a doubling of data availability, substantial gaps persist in various areas. The present statistical brief provides a snapshot of gender disparities across various sectors, and presents data-driven insights for policymakers, researchers and advocates. The key topics covered include women in politics, finance, education, employment, child marriage, and violence against women. The statistical brief underscores both the progress achieved and the critical need for further efforts to accelerate change.
When Juncture Meets Structure
Mar 2022
Working Paper
The book “When Juncture Meets Structure: Vignettes on Development and the COVID-19 Crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean” is based on the “Graph for Thought” series, and brings together 30 data-driven vignettes to tell the story of structural development challenges in the LAC region and how this is changing in the wake of the pandemic.
إحصاءات النوع الاجتماعي في المنطقة العربية: السعي الى تحقيق توازن طال انتظاره
Jun 2025
Working Paper
تواجه المنطقة العربية تحديات كبيرة على مسار أهداف التنمية المستدامة، والتقدّم المُحرَز في تحقيق المساواة بين الجنسين بطيء ومتفاوت. وعلى الرغم من توفُّر البيانات بكميات مضاعفة، لا تزال فجوات كبيرة قائمة في مجالات مختلفة. يقدّم هذا الموجز الإحصائي لمحةً عن التفاوت بين الجنسين في مختلف القطاعات، ويعرض رؤية تسترشد بالبيانات، يستفيد منها واضعو السياسات والباحثون ومناصرو قضايا النوع الاجتماعي. ويستعرض مواضيع تتناول المرأة في السياسة، والتمويل، والتعليم، والعمل، وزواج الأطفال، والعنف. ويسلّط الموجز الضوء على التقدّم المُحرَز والحاجة الماسة إلى بذل مزيد من الجهود لتسريع التغيير.
The Socioeconomic Impacts of the 2024 War on Lebanon: Policy Brief
Jun 2025
Working Paper
The 2024 war on Lebanon inflicted severe damage and left deep, long-lasting consequences. This report presents a comprehensive analysis of its immediate impacts, and is intended to outline a clear path for immediate recovery and guide medium- and long-term reform efforts. It examines the war’s direct impacts on infrastructure and economic systems, and exposes the heavy human and social toll it has taken. The report also assesses the macroeconomic implications, highlighting the worsening structural challenges and the resulting economic and social risks. It concludes with a set of public policy recommendations that serve as a solid foundation for comprehensive recovery and future-oriented reconstruction.
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