Population and Demography

India embarked on its new economic policy, popularly known as the liberalization of the Indian economy, in 1991. The basic features of the new economic policy were a reduction in government expenditures in order to reduce fiscal deficit, an opening up of the economy for export-oriented growth, the removal of government control and licensing, and a push for private participation to enhance competition and efficiency. Both supporters and critics of the new economic policy believed that economic reforms would increase internal migration. Proponents believed that the new impetus would boost the economy and job opportunities, leading to increased pull factors conducive to accelerated rural-to-urban migration. By contrast, the opponents of this policy were of the view that economic reforms would adversely affect the village and cottage industries and impoverish rural populations, leading to increased rural-tourban migration (Kundu, 1997). Although there was considerable success in achieving economic growth, from 2 to 3 per cent of growth in gross domestic product in the pre-reform era to over 6 per cent during the period 1991-2001, the impact of this enhanced growth on internal migration in general and rural-to-urban migration, in particular, has not been assessed. The latest census of 2001 reveals several interesting results in relation to internal migration, its regional pattern and the contribution of rural-to-urban migration to urban growth, as discussed by Bhagat and Mohanty (2009). They argue that the push factor has not significantly influenced internal migration. As a result, it appears inaccurate to state that the poor and disadvantaged are migrating more than those that are more well off.

Despite their importance, longitudinal methods of data collection are complex, time-consuming and expensive. With longer periods of observation, the problems of population movement and loss to follow-up become important. This is particularly the case in developing countries with high rates of rural-to-urban migration and residential mobility within major urban centres. A more practical alternative involves repeated data collection on well-defined communities on a regular monthly or annual basis. Combining such data-gathering exercises with a practical programme of intervention or service delivery can justify the expense involved and ensure the viability of the project.

The Pacific region is comprised of 22 island countries and territories - featuring some 7,500 islands of which around 500 are inhabited-spread over an area of 30 million square kilometres and stretching from the Northern Marianas Islands in the north-west Pacific Ocean to Pitcairn in the south-east. Representing an enormous diversity in physical geography and culture, languages and socio-political organization, size and resources endowment, some countries and areas such as Nauru and Niue, consist just of one coral island, whereas others, like Papua New Guinea and the Federated States of Micronesia comprise literally of hundreds of islands. Melanesia comprise large, mountainous and mainly volcanic islands, endowed with natural resources, rich soil and an abundant marine life. Micronesia and Polynesia, by contrast, comprise of much smaller islands and their natural resources are limited to the ocean; they mostly comprise of small atolls with poor soil, with elevations usually between one and two metres (Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Tokelau and Tuvalu). There are also some islands of volcanic origin with more fertile lands (such as Samoa, Tonga, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Cook Islands).

Reliable and timely information is a central pillar of well-functioning health systems. In fact, much of the progress in improving human health is “due to technical progress, including advances in knowledge about diseases and about appropriate, cost-effective responses” (Jamison and others, 2006; p. 155). Developing health technology requires sound research and the precise information that is needed for gauging the efficacy of interventions. Moreover, comprehensive sociodemographic and health information is needed to guide policy deliberations. The need for such information is particularly acute in developing countries because policy that lacks empirical grounding can be more damaging to public welfare in such settings than is the case in relatively prosperous countries where the public enjoys multiple service options and individuals have resources for financing personal choices.

It is now mid-2008, just seven years away from 2015, the target year for the realization of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) Programme of Ac tion and the eight Millennium De velopment Goals.

Longitudinal research, which includes panel research, is the term used to differentiate the methodology and utility of prospective studies from that of cross-sectional research. It describes not a single method, but a family of methods that measure change by linking individual data across time (Zazzo, 1967, cited in Menard, 2002).

During the early phase of the demographic transition in Sri Lanka (in the 1920s), the birth rate persisted at about 40 per 1,000 population, with the death rate fluctuating at around 20 per 1,000. A slight decline in the death rate was observed from the late 1920s onward. After the 1940s, the crude death rate dropped at an unprecedented level: about 1.5 deaths per 1,000 population per year on average, before reaching the level of 12 deaths per 1,000 population by the middle of the twentieth century (Caldwell, 1986).

Low fertility has become an important area of demographic research as fertility in many countries has fallen to levels well below replacement. Advanced countries have experienced low fertility trends for decades (United Nations, 2000), and some are experiencing lowest-low fertility (i.e. TFR below 1.3) (Kohler, Billari and Ortega, 2002; Caldwell, 2006). Less developed countries, by contrast, have recently experienced low fertility levels, and there no longer seem to be any barriers to most countries reaching replacement level and subsequently falling below that level. According to the United Nations, by 2000, around 44 per cent of the world population lived in countries where fertility had fallen below the replacement level. This proportion is expected to increase to 67 per cent by the year 2015 (United Nations, 2000). According to the United Nations median variant projections, approximately 80 per cent of the world’s population is projected to live in countries with below-replacement fertility before mid-century (United Nations, 2002a). Several East and North-East, as well as North and Central Asian countries have attained below replacement in recent decades (Gubhaju and Moriki-Durand, 2003; Atoh, 2001; Hirschman, Chamratrithirong and Guest, 1994; Knodel, Chamratrithirong and Debavalya, 1987). However, countries have attained low fertility in different ways (Perelli-Harris, 2005) and thus, every country and region may have a unique experience in reaching low fertility. For instance, Hirschman, Chamratrithirong and Guest (1994) have argued that the distinctive attributes of East Asian countries such as Hong Kong, China; Singapore; the Republic of Korea; and Taiwan Province of China in terms of rapid economic growth and Confucian cultural heritage would not make them a model for fertility decline in other countries in Asia.

The Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) held in Cairo in 1994 called for the establishment of strong linkages between sexual and reproductive health (SRH) and HIV/AIDS by enhancing the capacity of health-care providers, including all family planning providers, in the prevention and detection of, and counseling on, sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV/AIDS, especially among women and youth.