Population and Demography
Differential mortality among Pacific island countries and territories
Pacific island countries and territories are at different stages of demograhic transition, with some populations still experiencing relatively high mortality and fertility and others manifesting lower mortality and declining fertility. These countries are also passing through the epidemiological transition, with a progressive increase in proportionate mortality from chronic diseases and widening sex differentials in death rates (Taylor, Lewis and Sladden,1991; Taylor, Lewis and Levy, 1989).
Bangladeshi migrant workers in Singapore: The view from inside
Since the end of the Second World War, the international migration of labour has grown in volume and changed in character (Castles and Miller, 1998). It has also been observed that there are two main phases in post-Second World War migration (Castles and Miller, 1998, p.67). In the first phase, from 1945 to the early 1970s, large numbers of migrant workers were drawn from less developed countries into the fast-expanding industrial areas of Western Europe and North America. However, the organized recruitment of migrant workers by industrialized countries ended in the early 1970s owing mainly to the fundamental restructuring of the global economy and the politicization of migration (Castles, 2001). The second phase began in Asia in the mid-1970s. The phenomenal rise in oil prices since the end of 1973 generated a huge demand for temporary migrants in Middle Eastern countries. This massive demand for temporary migrants resulted in an enormous flow of labour to oil-rich Arab countries. In addition, since the mid-1980s the demand for temporary migrants grew in the prosperous countries of East and South-East Asia and a large number of migrants migrated to these countries for temporary employment. Bangladeshi migrants are found in both destinations.
Fertility transition and population ageing in the Asian and Pacific region
During the past half century, the world has witnessed a remarkable decline in total fertility rates (TFRs) from a high level of 5 children per woman in the period 1950-1955 to 2.8 children per woman in the period 2000-2005. While the fertility transition was already well under way in Europe, North America, and Australia and New Zealand during the period 1950-1955, TFR was very high in the Asian region, at about 6 children per woman. Fertility continued to decline in Europe, from a TFR of 2.7 in the period 1950-1955 to replacement level (2.1 children per woman) during the 1970s. TFR is now far below replacement level in Europe.
“Successful Ageing for Singapore”?: Financial (in)security of elderly persons
Many developed countries across the world have populations that are rapidly ageing. In East and South-East Asia, Singapore, together with Japan, the Republic of Korea and Thailand, has the fastest growing 65 years and older population (Westley, 1998: 1; Gubhaju, 2003: 3). While Japan has doubled its proportion of elderly persons from 10 to 20 per cent over 28 years, Singapore will reach this demographic leap in 17 years. In 2003, 7.6 per cent of the Singapore population was over 65 years of age (Ministry of Community Development and Sports (MCDS)**, 2004a). Owing to improved health care, health insurance and socio-economic conditions, life expectancy has increased in Singapore with large numbers of people from the pre-war baby boom era surviving into their 60s and forming the country’s growing elderly population. According to estimates for 2004, life expectancy at birth for men stands at 76.9 of age and for females at 80.9 (Department of Statistics, 2004). As such, demographers have attested to Singapore having the fastest ageing population in the world (Ogawa, 2003: 95-96; Mehta and Vasoo, 2001: 186; ESCAP, 2002); it has been projected that its ageing population is growing at an unprecedented rate of 3.7 per cent annually (MCDS, 2004b), with the oldest-old cohort (aged 85 and above) growing the fastest (Chan, 2001: 3).
Dramatic fertility transition in Mongolia and its determinants: The demise of the pronatalist state
The move from a centrally controlled economy to a market-driven economy has had strong political implications for family planning and fertility in Mongolia. Under socialist rule, Mongolia had a strong pronatalist population policy under which those families having children were provided with generous benefits. The changes made to these policies have had a considerable impact on fertility and family formation in Mongolia. In the mid-1970s, the country started to experience a dramatic decrease in the level of fertility, which intensified when the country moved towards a market economy. The country experienced a drop in its total fertility rate (TFR) from 7.2 children per woman (of reproductive age) in 1975 to about 3 children in 1995, and it has remained constant at about 2.3 children since that time. Relatively few studies have been carried out on fertility changes in Mongolia with explanations about their causes, primarily owing to a lack of data sources.
Antenatal care service availability and utilization in rural viet nam
Studies of determinants of reproductive health service utilization-maternal health services in particular-in developing countries have traditionally focused on individual-level factors. More recently, policymakers, programme managers and researchers have become interested in the influence of the quality of health-care services on service utilization. The availability of survey data that include information on individuals as well as the community and service environment allows researchers to examine the impact that of community-level factors, including the availability of and accessibility to service providers, have on utilization.
Low fertility in China: Trends, policy and impact
China currently is the country with the largest population in the world. The Fifth National Population Census in 2000 reports that the total population of mainland China stands at 1.27 billion (Zhuang and Zhang, 2003), while the 1 Percent National Population Sample Survey (mini-census) carried out in November 2005 reports the total population to be at 1.31 billion (National Statistics Bureau (NSB), 2006).1 China is also the country with the most stringent and government-directed family planning programme and fertility policy, having experienced a dramatic decline in fertility from 5 to 6 children per woman in the 1950s to less than 2 in recent years. The 2000 census reports China’s total fertility rate (TFR) to be at 1.4 (NSB, 2003). The rapid changes occurring in China’s population dynamics call for a review of the fertility transition in China in terms of trends, policy and impact. This article will first discuss the population dynamics ongoing in China in terms of growth, birth rate and fertility and then examine the fertility policy implemented by the Government of China, before exploring the impact of fertility decline in terms of population ageing, gender equality, sex ratio at birth and labour supply.
Population ageing and labour supply prospects in China from 2005 to 2050
Increased life expectancy and rapid fertility decline since the 1970s have combined to create a very rapid rate of population ageing in China. These demographic developments are expected to result in an ageing workforce and a significant slow-down in the growth of the working-age population. According to the United Nations medium variant population projection, the size of the working age population will increase only slightly over the next 10 years before beginning to shrink soon after 2020. Furthermore, since the participation rate of the elderly population is much lower than that of the prime-age labour force, ageing of the workforce will reduce the aggregate labour force participation rate (ALFPR).
The emergence of low fertility as a policy issue
In the 1960s, demographers projected that the world’s population would reach 16 billion people by 2050, if the then very high fertility rates in most countries were not brought under control. Today, the projected population in 2050 is around 9 billion. This reduction of the world’s population by 7 billion people from what might have been is one of the most remarkable but least heralded achievements of humankind. Most of the success, in numerical terms, can be attributed to falls in birth rates in Asian countries. In China alone, if fertility had remained at its late 1970s, relatively low level of 2.6 births per woman, the Chinese population in 2050 would be 1 billion more than is now projected.
International labour recruitment: Channelling Bangladeshi labour to east and south-east Asia
International labour migration in Asia has experienced the most rapid growth in the last few decades. There are two major destination regions for labour migrants in Asia: Middle East and East and South-East Asia. In addition to countries of the Middle East, since the early 1980s we observe a sustained growth of foreign manpower in the prosperous countries of East and South-East Asia, particularly Singapore, Malaysia, the Republic of Korea and Japan. Those countries have followed specific temporary migrant worker programmes in recruiting foreign workers although the name and nature of the programmes vary. One can identify two types of temporary labour migration programmes implemented in the region – the “work permit” and the “trainee” programmes. Each migrant worker programme offers different rights and privileges to migrants. Malaysia and Singapore hire foreign workers under the “work permit” system, which provides special benefits to them as workers. But the Republic of Korea and Japan pursue a conservative policy with regard to the admission of foreign workers. They hire foreign workers mainly under the “trainee” system, which restricts benefits as trainees are not formally recognized as workers. In general, labour migration policies in the receiving countries in Asia can be broadly summarized as follows: limiting labour migration, limiting the duration of migration and limiting integration (Piper, 2004: 75).
Mortality and causes of death in Thailand: Evidence from the survey of population change and death registration
Death is a major factor affecting a country’s population structure. Evidence shows that death rates tend to decrease continuously and rapidly as a consequence of continued improvements in medical care and the public health system along with socio-economic development. Infant, child and maternal mortality are, therefore, often used as indicators, reflecting the effectiveness of the public health system and improvements in the quality of life. In Thailand, such improvements have been evident. From 1964-1965 to 1995-1996, male and female life expectancy at birth increased from 59.9 to 69.9 years and 62 to 74.9 years, respectively.
Transnational politics and organizing of migrant labour in south-east Asia – NGO and trade union perspectives
South-East Asia is part of a dynamic region in terms of labour migration comprised of source and destination countries highly significant within the broader patterns of human movement at the global level. The “import” and “export” of steadily increasing numbers of foreign workers in general and the feminization of migration in particular, has created a myriad of problems and challenges that
The Cebu longitudinal health and nutrition survey: Two decades later
This article discusses the 23-year history of the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey (CLHNS), which was started in 1983 in collaboration with the Carolina Population Center of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (CPC-UNC), the Office of Population Studies of the University of San Carlos (OPS-USC) and the Nutrition Center of the Philippines (NCP). After briefly presenting information on its origins and development in this introductory section, the methodologies and strategies used in the research and some of its major findings and contributions are discussed, before analysing the challenges and lessons learned from the study. The article ends by identifying some best practices and offering some recommendations for other longitudinal studies.
Fertility decline in Asia: The role of marriage change
In current discussions of the fertility transition in Asia, the role of marriage change is frequently understated, because of the strong emphasis (perhaps flowing from the influence of the family planning movement) on marital fertility. Yet, since the time of Malthus, marriage change has been given strong attention in historical studies of fertility transition in Europe. In North-Western Europe, early in the twentieth century, non-marriage was a major factor affecting fertility. In some countries, the proportion of women remaining single at the end of their childbearing period reached 20 per cent (Hajnal, 1965; Therborn, 2004: 147-155). Such high levels of non-marriage did not always directly translate into lower fertility, because out-of-wedlock births were not uncommon; but they certainly played an important role in fertility decline.
Managing the Kanchanaburi demographic surveillance system: Creation of a relational database management system
Increasing attention is being paid to the collection of longitudinal data. This attention is, in part, a response to the difficulties faced in establishing causal relations with cross-sectional data. However, the collection and use of longitudinal data has brought with it a series of challenges that are not faced by researchers manipulating cross-sectional data. In this article we describe how initial data management models, based on cross-sectional data storage and manipulation used in the Kanchanaburi Demographic Surveillance System (KDSS), were found to be inadequate and were replaced by a database system that is consistent with longitudinal data collection, storage and manipulation.
HIV/AIDS prevention among young people in east and south-east Asia in the context of reproductive and sexual health
According to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), every day 5,000 young people aged 15-25 years become infected with HIV, which translates into almost 2 million new infections per year. HIV transmission generally occurs through sex, the exchange of needles; to a lesser extent, it is transmitted from an HIV infected mother to her newborn child. While most countries in the region have national HIV prevalence rates of less than one per cent, vulnerable populations, especially youths, are much more prone to HIV infection owing to lack of correct health information, indulgence in risky behaviours, poverty and gender discrimination coupled with lack of access to adequate reproductive health services.
Stagnation in fertility levels in Pakistan
Finally, at the turn of the century and after decades of stagnancy, there was definite evidence of a decline in fertility in Pakistan. Fertility in Pakistan probably began to decline in the early 1990s or even in the late 1980s. Significantly, all estimates for the 1990s for the first time fell below 6.0 births per woman to a little less than five. This is in contrast to numerous surveys that indicated that the TFR remained above six births per woman in the 1980s. Furthermore the last census held finally in 1998, indicated that the average population growth rate for the period 1981-1998 was 2.6 per cent per annum, a decline from previous intercensal rates, consistent with a decline in fertility in the 1990s. While this trend in fertility decline has continued even touted as one of the “fastest declines in Asia” (Feeney and Alam, 2003) the latest Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) indicates a stall in fertility at four children per woman.
The Japanese elderly as a social safety net
In the post-Second World War period, Japan’s fertility decline was not only the earliest to occur but also the greatest in magnitude among all industrialized nations. From 1947 to 1957, the total fertility rate (TFR) declined by more than 50 per cent from 4.54 to 2.04 children per woman. This 50 per cent reduction of fertility over a 10-year period is a first in human history. In the 1960s, there were only minor fluctuations around the replacement level of fertility (2.1), but subsequent to the oil crisis of 1973, the TFR started to fall again, reaching 1.32 in 2006. These demographic developments have been causing a great amount of concern in various spheres of contemporary Japanese society. For example, rapid population ageing has already imposed serious financial pressures on the social security system, and these pressures are expected to increase further in the coming years. The Government of Japan has been increasingly concerned about this problem in recent years and has tried to shift some of the costs of the social security system back onto families.
A young person’s perspective on population reproductive health and the ICPD
My name is Jacque, I come from Fiji and I am 23 years of age. In addition to being a university student I have been a youth advocate/volunteer for several years now in different capacities. I would first like to congratulate all the players driving the ICPD agenda – I can imagine that the process has not been an easy one, trying to translate recommendations into actions and ensuring that those actions have an impact on the ground. Today’s review, 15 years after the adoption of the ICPD Programme of Action really displays commitment and perseverance of the people and organizations driving the ICPD agenda. As a peer of mine back home used to say – we need to “walk on, walk strong”. Walk on, walk strong.