Population and Demography

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is the late clinical stage of infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The first AIDS case in China was reported in 1985. By 1998, new HIV infections had spread to all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities. It has been estimated that HIV/AIDS prevalence among adults rose from less than 0.002 per cent (10,000 cases) in the period 1990-1995 to about 0.2 per cent (1 million cases) in the period 2000-2001 (UNAIDS China, 2002; WHO, 2001). While the rate is still low in comparison with some other affected countries, there is no indication that the spread of HIV/AIDS in China will be controlled or will slow down in the near future (Zeng, 2001; UNAIDS and WHO, 2002).

Thai people’s life expectancy has risen from 59 to 72 years between 1964 and 2005 (Prasartkul and Vapattanawong, 2005), while the proportion of persons aged 60 years and over in Thailand has been dramatically increasing, from 4.6 per cent in 1960 to 9.5 per cent in 2000 (National Statistical Office (NSO), 1960 and 2000). It is expected that Thailand will face a “population ageing” crisis in the year 2017, when older persons will constitute approximately 14 per cent of the total population, an increase from 7 per cent in 1987 (Jitapunkul, 2000). In other words, the percentage of older persons will double within 30 years and will further increase to 25 per cent of the total in 2035, based on a recent population projection done by the Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University (2006). This means that Thailand has only a relatively short time to prepare to respond to the various challenges brought about the greying of its population and in particular issues related to the health, welfare, housing and long-term care of older persons.

Every country in the Asian and Pacific region is in the midst of a demographic transition that is producing large changes in age structure with important implications for economic growth and standards of living. In the early stages of the transition, high fertility and declining infant and child mortality produce a bulge in the population at young ages. The middle of the transition is marked by an increase in the share of the population concentrated at the working ages as large cohorts of children reach adulthood and as the relative number of children are depressed by fertility decline. At the end of the transition, the share of the older population increases. In part, this is a consequence of continued reductions in mortality rates, but of greater consequence are the low fertility rates that characterize the final stages of the demographic transition.

As the result of a rapid decline recently in fertility levels, Viet Nam has largely completed the transition to low fertility. The total fertility rate (TFR) estimated in the 1999 Census was 2.3 children per woman. Previous demographic surveys indicated TFRs of 4.0 in 1987 (Viet Nam Demographic and Health Survey - VNDHS-I), 3.3 for the period 1989-1993 Intercensal Demographic Survey (ICDS 1994), and 2.5 for 1996-1997 Viet Nam Demographic and Health Survey (VNDHS-II). As might be expected, the rapid fertility decline in Viet Nam reflects the significant growth of contraceptive use. VNDHS II data indicate that the all method contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) had reached 75 per cent by 1997 and the modern method rate 56 per cent.

Since the late 1970s, the Chinese Government has promoted the "one couple, one child" population policy to slow the rate of population growth. Couples with one child are encouraged to apply for a one-child certificate that is offered nationwide for those applicants who have signed a contract with a local family planning agency promising to have only one child. In return, they receive a monetary bonus and preferential assignment of housing and employment. Chen (1985:55) found that a total of 42 per cent of women with one child in the 1982 One-per-Thousand Population Fertility Sampling Survey had obtained a certificate; 78 per cent of those were in urban areas and 31 per cent resided in rural areas.

Structural changes necessitated by population ageing may demand a greater share of expenditure from the Government

Since the Second World War, censuses have been held in the Republic of Kiribati in 1947, 1963, 1968, 1973, 1978, 1985 and 1990. This paper presents an analysis of the 1985 census and compares projections made on the basis of that analysis with the 1990 enumeration. Comparison is made throughout with the estimates derived from 1978 census.

By enlisting the aid of the traditional authorities attending deliveries, important health messages for new mothers might be reinforced.

India is fast becoming a graying society as a result of its upcoming prospect to achieve an accelerating growth in the size of its ageing population. Two causal factors are: (a) a varying but persistent fertility-mortality decline across the country, and (b) added lifespan with increased survival chances, especially at the later end of the life cycle. Those changes, and in particular the added life years, have, however, been mired in the high prevalence of chronic diseases, affecting over half of the country’s population aged 60 and over (NSS 52nd round, 1995-1996). Such a situation - coupled with large-scale poverty and the poor financial status of the older persons (Alam, 2004) - is likely to pose many serious issues for the country. One of the more critical may indeed be the higher incidence of frailty, senescence, functional incapacitation and dependence of older men and women in activities of daily living (ADL) – raising questions for the caregivers, especially the families. With large-scale migration, declining family size and growing participation of women in economic activities, this traditional support mechanism is apparently on the verge of losing its sheen. Somewhat inexplicably, this aspect has been almost completely missed in the analytical literature on health and ageing in India. The analysis presented below is therefore a modest attempt to fill some of this void by looking into the following.