Viet Nam’s older population: The view from the census

Viet Nam, as many other countries in East and South-East Asia, has been successful in its policy to lower fertility in the interest of national development. According to United Nations estimates, the total fertility rate fell from over six, just three decades ago, to close to the replacement level by the turn of the twenty-first century. Life expectancy at birth increased during the same time by almost 20 years to close to 70 (United Nations, 2001a). Past high fertility, combined with mortality decline, is resulting in substantial growth in the numbers of the older persons and, in conjunction with the subsequent fertility decline, to an increasing share of the overall population who are at older ages. Recent United Nations projections indicate that the population aged 60 and over will increase by 80 per cent in size in the first two decades of this new century and grow fivefold by mid-century (United Nations, 2001b). By 2050, persons aged 60 and over will constitute almost a quarter of the total Vietnamese population.