Fecundidad fuera de la unión en el Paraguay

Between 1998 and 2008, the total fertility rate (TFR) in Paraguay fell from 4.3 births per woman to 2.5, a significant proportion of which were out-of-union births. Data from the 2008 National Demographic and Sexual and Reproductive Health Survey (ENDSSR 2008) were used to estimate the TFR using the Bongaarts model, and the predictive capacity of the model was evaluated using Stover’s revised model, which takes account of out-of union sexual activity. Lastly, a logistic regression analysis was used to explore significant predictors of births prior to first unions in Paraguay. The results show that age, region of residence, religion and purchasing power are factors affecting the likelihood of out-of union births. More detailed analysis is needed to determine exactly which assumptions and equations in the Bongaarts model are unsuited to Paraguay, and to ascertain the mechanisms underlying individual behaviour.