Survey of economic and social developments in the Arab region 2013-2014

image of Survey of economic and social developments in the Arab region 2013-2014
The Arab region saw slower economic growth in 2013, mainly because of the moderate growth of major oil-exporting countries, represented by the member countries of Gulf Cooperation Council. While GCC countries are on a stable recovery path, the polarization of economic performance among Arab countries continues between GCC and other Arab countries. The political, security and humanitarian crisis in Iraq, Libya, Palestine and the Syrian Arab Republic deepened, impacting the region negatively, now increasingly being viewed as fragile and chaotic despite its vast natural resources. This report discusses the issue of current financing gaps, estimates conceptual financing gaps to achieve full employment, and concludes with a set of policy recommendations. As outlined in the report, regional integration has the greatest potential to unlock financial resource mobilization and diversification, and should be utilized as a tool for economic and social transformation across the Arab region.

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Annex: The Thirlwall-Hussain Model

The basis for the TH model is the two-gap model (equation 1), which considers the savings gap (left hand side) or the foreign exchange gap – also known as the external finance gap – (the first term on the right hand side) as the most binding constraints, because the government budget deficit is considered as being driven by one of those gaps.


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