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Prices and progress? The link between inflation and structural change in post-war Brazil
This paper employs a multivariate time series model to examine the relationship between price increases and structural change in post-war Brazil (1945–1964). To assess this relationship, the model investigates the link between prices, the industrial share of total output in the economy, net investment and industrial sector wages. With a view to addressing criticisms commonly made of the vector autoregression (VAR) family of models, and particularly the ad hoc nature of Cholesky’s decomposition method, hypotheses drawn from the economic literature on development theory were applied to the matrix of restrictions. The findings indicate that inflation played a significant role in structural change in Brazil, while the influence of structural change on inflation was less pronounced.
Reflections from the Chinese perspective on Sino-Brazilian cooperation in the twenty-first century
Sino-Brazilian cooperation has advanced rapidly in the twenty-first century. Although its successes have made it a model for South-South cooperation, the relationship also faces many challenges. This study focuses on the trade imbalance and the resultant risk of “deindustrialization” for Brazil, proposing that fostering technology transfer in the context of investments and situating Chinese companies in Brazil are two ways to mitigate its negative effects. However, the main response to these challenges is well-defined, comprehensive development planning by the Brazilian State with a strong commitment to reindustrialization. Since South-South cooperation is often more complex than North-South or North-North cooperation and few relevant academic studies exist on cooperation between developing countries, this article also advocates for a rational and holistic vision of Sino-Brazilian cooperation.
The effects of the coronavirus disease pandemic on the male and female labour supply in Brazil
Using an ordered probit model estimation and quarterly data for the 2018–2020 period from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Continuous PNAD), this study sets out to analyse the effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) health crisis on the supply of working hours by men and women in Brazil. The results suggest that the pandemic reduced the probability of men and women supplying larger numbers of working hours, and that women were most affected. In addition, having small children reduced the probability of mothers supplying larger numbers of working hours, while for men that probability increased.
The weakening of the developmental State in Brazil: An analysis of the political economy of the 1970s and 1980s
This article analyses the weakening of the developmental State and the consolidation of neoliberalism in Brazil that took place through the reconfiguration of interests between social classes and groups, as part of the process of the return to democracy and the struggle waged to install a less exclusionary Constitution. It argues that, unlike in central countries, where the transition to neoliberalism had to do above all with containing the rise of the working class, in Brazil, it took the form of an anti-nationalization vision that gained strength from the late 1970s onward and was driven mainly by a repositioning and reconfiguration of power between different factions within the dominant class, amid growing and forceful external pressure to adopt neoliberal formulas.
Structure of employment associated with international trade in Brazil from a gender perspective
This article analyses the volume and structure of female employment linked to Brazil’s foreign trade with its different partners in 2019, on the basis of estimations made from the Brazilian input-output table and on trade and employment statistics. Jobs linked to exports account for a small share of total employment in Brazil, especially in the case of women. Comparing the number of jobs generated by exports with those threatened by imports, the balance is smaller for women than for men. In addition, the quality of export-related employment is below the economy-wide average, for both women and men alike. Nonetheless, trade-related jobs in Brazil vary across trading partners, reflecting the country’s heterogeneous pattern of trade specialization.
Sustainability and development in the municipalities of the State of Paraná: Mapping and analysis using the sustainable city development index of Brazil (IDSC-BR)
In consideration of the importance that the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development have acquired in the economic, social and environmental spheres, this article uses the sustainable city development index of Brazil (IDSC-BR) methodology to map SDG attainment in the 399 municipalities of Paraná. The main findings reveal that the municipalities with the lowest SDG fulfilment scores are concentrated in the central region of Paraná. Analysing the results by the individual Goals, the State performed best with Goal 11, sustainable cities and communities (89.52%), Goal 7, affordable and clean energy (85.11%), and Goal 12, responsible production and consumption (75.64%). At the same time, the Goals where compliance faces the greatest challenges are Goal 15, life on land (16.83%), Goal 14, life below water (26.02%), and Goal 17, partnerships for the goals (33.25%).
Support for technological innovation in the Brazilian machinery and equipment sector since the 2000s: Analysis based on the Innovation Survey (PINTEC)
This article analyses how technological innovation has evolved in the machinery and equipment sector in Brazil, comparing innovation by firms that benefited from government schemes to support innovation versus those that did not. The data used were from six editions of the Innovation Survey (PINTEC) and a special tabulation prepared by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The results indicate that the industrial and science, technology and innovation policies of the 2000s had positive effects in the sector: firms’ innovative activities were boosted by government support instruments and increased more than innovation by companies that did not receive this support. The systematized data also enable the identification of some failings in these sector support programmes.
External debt and exchange-rate misalignment in Brazilian firms: Developments and risks from 2000 to 2018
This article investigates the effects of exchange-rate misalignment on the earnings of 201 Brazilian non-financial listed companies over the period 2010–2018. A measure of exchange-rate misalignment was constructed by compiling information on the value of currency derivative contracts and generating a new database. The results indicate that exchange-rate devaluation has a negative differential effect for firms that have borrowed in foreign currency, including exporting firms. Controlling for variables that protect firms with foreign currency debt, we find that the differential effect of devaluation is negative for firms with larger foreign currency liabilities and positive for those with larger foreign currency assets or greater hedging. These results are robust to different specifications.
The Amazon region at the heart of the Brazilian economys commodity-export model: The case of the State of Pará
The Brazilian economy has undergone far-reaching changes, related especially to the loss of industrial capacity as deindustrialization has spread and commodity-export production has expanded. The Brazilian Amazon region forms part of the expansionary logic of the agro-industry and mining sectors. This article analyses the economic reproduction model of one of the main federative units located in that region, the State of Pará. It uses the specialization coefficients and location quotients of Brazil’s 27 subnational federative units, to make a case study of that State. The findings reveal a declining industrial structure, particularly in manufacturing industry, accompanied by growth in the mining and metallurgical sector. Economic activity has become increasingly concentrated in the production of raw materials and semi-finished industrial inputs, of low technological content.
الكيلومبوس ،Quilombos بؤر المقاومة الأفرو-برازيلية
الكيلومبوس Quilombos ، هي أماكن للذّاكرة والمقاومة، أنشأها عبيد هاربون من العمل القسري أو جماعات من السّود بعد إلغاء العبودية. بيد إنّ العديد منها مهدّد اليوم بزحف المشاريع العقاريّة.
Quilombos, hotbeds of Afro-Brazilian resistance
Created by enslaved people fleeing forced labour or by black communities after the abolition of slavery, quilombos remain spaces of memory and resistance. But many are now threatened by real estate projects.
The shrinking State: Exploring the links between public spending and class, race and gender vulnerability in Brazil Arthur Welle and Ana Luíza Matos de Oliveira
The objective of this article is to understand the class, race and gender profile of persons who would be most affected if the Brazilian State were to stop providing health and education services. The article begins with a review of class, race and gender inequalities in Brazil, and then examines the role of the State in that regard. The second section presents an analysis of public education and health expenditures through a discussion of the class, race and gender profiles of users and a simulation of the elimination of public health and education spending. The third section contains concluding remarks. The article proposes that the elimination of public services would plunge poorer, Black2 and female populations (categories which often overlap) into severe financial hardship and negatively affect their well-being and could deepen poverty or lead to extreme poverty.
Drivers of the adoption of organic farming in Brazil: A combinatorial analysis Tanisa Andrade and Marcelo Fernandes Pacheco Dias
The general objective of this study is to identify the combinations of eco-innovation drivers associated with Brazilian municipalities in which a large proportion of farms report that they engage in organic farming. To this end, a theoretical review identified 11 drivers, which were classified as internal and external to the farms. The data were obtained from the 2017 agricultural census, published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Qualitative comparative analysis was used to identify the combinations of drivers associated with organic farming. The results showed that no single driver can be considered necessary. Nonetheless, two combinations of internal drivers and three combinations of external drivers were found to be sufficient to explain the existence of a large proportion of properties engaged in organic farming. These findings contribute to the literature on eco-innovation in agriculture and to the monitoring of public policies.
Sectoral composition, export trade partners and value added: An input-output analysis for Brazil and Mexico Patieene Alves-Passoni
This study examine the impact of changes in the sectoral composition of exports and in trade partners on the value added of Brazil and Mexico between 2000 and 2019, within the framework of Latin American structuralism. Employing quantitative input-output structural decomposition analysis, we identify shifts in value added coefficients, production techniques, domestic demand and exports (level, product mix and trade partners). The research brings out a significant correlation between changes in trade partners and the structure of the export basket. Both Brazil and Mexico display export concentration, geographically and sectorally. While alterations in the export basket and trade partners had a negative impact on Mexico’s value added growth, Brazil experienced a positive effect. This finding for Brazil is attributed in part to its specialized agricultural and mineral exports to China. Conversely, Mexico’s specialization in transport equipment exports to the United States and Canada contributed to its unfavourable outcome.
Challenges and strategic opportunities for Brazils participation in global value chains Francielly de Fátima Almeida and Luciano Nakabashi
The objective of this study is to measure the effects of global value chain participation on the total factor productivity of the Brazilian economy, using heterogeneous dynamic panel models and methods suitable for diagnosing short-run and long-run effects. The study has two innovative features: it estimates the impact of global value chains on Brazil’s sectoral total factor productivity by disaggregating the indicators of simple and complex value chain participation developed by Wang and others (2017), and it uses a novel methodology to analyse the relationship between participation in global value chains and sectoral total factor productivity in Brazil. In the long run, this participation appears to generate productivity gains whatever indicator is considered, with the largest long-run effects arising when activities are carried out in complex chains. Positive effects are found in 15 of the 31 sectors analysed.
Efectos del programa Beneficio de Prestación Continuada (BPC) en el estado nutricional y la seguridad alimentaria de las personas mayores en el Brasil
La atención de la población mayor plantea desafíos para las políticas públicas. Los obstáculos a su sustento, los cambios fisiológicos y metabólicos y las enfermedades crónicas incrementan la vulnerabilidad de las personas mayores más pobres. El objetivo de este estudio consiste en evaluar el impacto del programa Beneficio de Prestación Continuada (BPC) en el estado nutricional y los niveles de seguridad alimentaria de las personas mayores en el Brasil. Se utilizó la Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares (POF) 2017-2018 y el diseño de regresión discontinua borrosa. En promedio, el programa aumenta la probabilidad de que las personas mayores gocen de seguridad alimentaria. También reduce la probabilidad de sufrir inseguridad alimentaria leve. Aunque el objetivo del programa es reducir la pobreza, estos resultados pueden ayudar en la formulación de políticas públicas que promuevan la calidad de vida de las personas mayores, al actuar sobre el poder adquisitivo, la salud y la nutrición.
Effects of the Continuous Benefit Programme on the nutritional status and food security of older persons in Brazil
Addressing the needs of older persons poses public-policy challenges. The obstacles that the poorest older persons face in securing their livelihoods, compounded by physiological and metabolic changes and the presence of chronic diseases, make them more vulnerable. This study evaluates the impact of the Continuous Benefit Programme (BPC) on the nutritional status and food security levels of older persons in Brazil, using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design with microdata drawn from the 2017–2018 Consumer Expenditure Survey (POF). On average, participation in the programme is found to increase the probability that an older person will be food-secure, and to reduce his/her chances of suffering mild food insecurity. Although the objective of the programme is to reduce poverty, these findings can support the formulation of public policies that promote the quality of life of older persons, by acting on purchasing power, health and nutrition.
Transiciones del curso de vida y migración interna en el Brasil: un análisis basado en datos de múltiples períodos
Este trabajo tiene por objeto investigar la relación entre las transiciones del curso de vida y los patrones de edad de la migración interna en el Brasil. Analizamos y generamos métricas de cohortes sintéticas para las transiciones del curso de vida sobre la base de datos transversales provenientes de los censos demográficos del Brasil correspondientes a 1991, 2000 y 2010. Utilizamos el modelo Rogers-Castro para evaluar los patrones de edad referidos a la migración. Los resultados dan indicios de una estrecha asociación entre la migración y las transiciones del curso de vida, en particular en lo referido al momento de la primera unión. Además, los resultados indican que la distancia entre las zonas de origen y de destino de los migrantes es una variable explicativa importante. Demostramos que es posible analizar poblaciones de gran tamaño con métricas de cohortes sintéticas extraídas de los datos de varios períodos.
Pass-through of exchange rate shocks in Brazil as a small open economy
An econometric model is used to analyse pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation, considering the monetary policy instrument variable, the target variable, the level of economic activity, the level of credit and the exchange rate. This system is exogenously affected by commodity prices, the level of external sector activity and the uncertainty perceived by international investors. Using vector error correction models, we find greater pass-through to administered prices than to free prices and a marked asymmetry characterized by stronger exchange rate pass-through when the domestic currency appreciates (deflationary effect) than when it depreciates (inflationary effect). Moreover, we note that the asymmetry in pass-through to domestic prices is due to the behaviour of free prices, since asymmetry in administered prices is not very significant.
Demographic aspects and regional income convergence in Brazil: a panel data approach
The framework of condition convergence forms the theoretical basis for different dynamic panel data approaches, but depending on the specifications, the method and the time period, results can vary significantly. This article presents empirical results of applying different panel data approaches to study the impact of demographic factors on regional growth of the 27 states of Brazil over 20002014. The results suggest that estimation using the generalized method of moments (GMM) is likely to be more consistent and efficient than the other methods studied. The results also point to a significant and negative relation between the demographic variables and regional economic growth. It is hoped that this study will contribute to the literature, by offering a comparative model framework and an analysis of demographics and economic growth.