Explaining trade policy effects for the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation countries

This paper investigates the trade facilitation role of regional trade agreements of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) countries. A structural gravity model is applied to analyse annual bilateral exports for the period 2000–2019. The findings indicate that Kazakhstan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan experience a positive trade effect from their regional trade agreements, while Mongolia faces a negative trade effect. Although these agreements promote intra-bloc trade, their impact on exports outside the CAREC region is trivial. The paper offers policy guidance based on comparative advantage and trade complementarity to enhance trade connectivity of the CAREC region.