Macroeconomics for development: from “financierism” to “productivism”

Contrary to the belief that the region has found its way to an efficient macroeconomic policy, this paper argues that macroeconomic failures have been partly responsible for its disappointing economic and social performance in recent decades. Producers of gdp have had to cope with extremely unstable demand, exchange rates and access to financing, which have discouraged productivity and investment. Financial capital flows have been a determinant of this macroeconomic instability. This paper examines their intrinsically procyclical behaviour and concludes that an environment friendly to production development requires countercyclical regulation of financial flows. It describes how regulation of aggregate demand needs to be reconciled with the evolution of potential gdp, the real exchange rate with the current account, and financial flows with a far-reaching reform of the capital market reforms, away from “financierism” and towards “productivism”.