Impact of the peace negotiations in Colombia on real GDP, 2013–2019

The peace negotiations between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia –People’s Army and the Government of Colombia, which began in late 2012 and concluded with the signing of the Final Agreement for Ending the Conflict and Building a Stable and Lasting Peace in 2016, sought to bring an end to decades of violence, loss of life, destruction of infrastructure and social fragmentation. This study uses the synthetic control method proposed by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) and Abadie, Diamond and Hainmueller (2010) to assess the impact of the Agreement on Colombia’s real per capita GDP growth, taking into account economic, demographic and institutional factors. The main findings indicate that Colombia has registered higher growth rates than its synthetic counterpart since 2013, reflecting a shift in the expectations of economic agents from the outset of the peace process.