Meta-trends in global value chains and development: Interacting impacts with COVID-19 in Africa

How will the COVID-19 pandemic affect prospects for foreign investment and development in Africa? In part this depends on its interaction with pre-existing meta-trends in the global economy, such as the coming Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). It will also depend on the nature of revisions to political settlements in Africa arising from the pandemic. This paper explores these issues through an examination of the direct and indirect economic impacts of the pandemic and their likely interaction with meta-trends in the global economy. In particular it argues that while there is still an important role for foreign investment, the crisis also creates opportunities for more domestically-focused investment and production.